Vulnerability & Directionality

Vulnerability

The final vulnerability scores will be estimated using similar methods to Boyce et al 2022 and 2024 - a weighted average of sensitivity, exposure, and if used in this analysis, adaptive, scores based on variability across the study area. For attributes based on life history stages, such as sensitivity and/or adaptability, these will be uniform across the study region. These averages will occur across space.

The final product will be a map of species vulnerability across the study region. An overall vulnerability score may be generated based on habitat suitability.

Directionality

In the original CVA, in addition to ranking how sensitive species may be to future climate change, experts also estimated if species would be positively or negatively impacted by climate change. For the CVA2.0, we will use the species distribution models to estimate current area of preferred habitat. We will calculate change in habitat area over time from the decadal and long-term projections from MOM6. We may also calculate directionality via expert opinion and compare the two metrics.